Graduate school applications up only slightly, contrary to economy-related predictions

Although enrollment in graduate programs typically increases during economic recessions, the university's data for 2009 is a mixed bag and is leaving administrators unsure of where enrollment numbers will end up.

So far, only about 100 more students than last year have applied to the graduate school, a minuscule increase considering there are more than 18,000 applications. But how economic trends will continue to affect application numbers, if at all, are a challenge to predict, as the university's graduate programs have various application deadlines, some of which are as late as May, administrators said.

"[The recession] is unlike anything that's happened in our lifetime," said Cynthia Hale, an assistant dean of the graduate school. "We don't know what will happen."

Beyond application numbers, enrollment for the fall is also uncertain. Officials are aware of past trends and William McLean, an associate vice president for academic affairs, said the university is concerned about a "spike" in graduate enrollment. But McLean also warned it may be too early to know the economy's ultimate impact.

The public policy school, for example, has seen a 38 percent increase in applications. Officials at the school, which only offers graduate degrees, are unsure of whether the spike is due to the economy or what they're calling the "Obama effect."

"A lot of people want to be in Washington right now," said Steve Fetter, the dean of the public policy school.

"During past recessions, there is generally an increase in graduate programs," he added. "One option is to stay in school longer to compete better in the job market."

In contrast, applications are down slightly in the business school, according to Robert Krapfel, the associate dean for MBA programs.

"We were already seeing a very large trend up," Krapfel said. "It may be reasonable that you would not see another big jump on top of that."

And members of the work force who may normally leave their jobs to enter the MBA program are choosing to stay in their jobs instead, Krapfel said, fearing they would be unsuccessful when they earn their degrees and must try to find a job once again.

"People who have jobs want to stay in those jobs," he added.

Although applications are only up slightly overall, winter term enrollment in graduate programs was up 24 percent this year, according to Hilary Sazama, the manager of the university's extended studies programs.

The other variable in the enrollment puzzle is the affordability for graduate students as the economy continues to weaken and loans become harder to find, said Johnetta Davis, an associate dean in the graduate school.

"When it comes to enrollment, we're not sure what is going to happen," Taryn Faulkner, the assistant director of admissions for the public policy school, said.

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