'We're plotting the way forward'

Thirteen years ago, atmospheric and oceanic science professor Ross Salawitch began to develop methods of measuring carbon dioxide levels from space. Tuesday, his years of work were set to pay off as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory took off from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base.

Not long after, it crashed into the Indian Ocean.

Salawitch started planning with his team in 1996 and was in California for the satellite's launch early Tuesday morning. In the beginning stages, all appeared normal. The problem arose when the satellite was supposed to separate from the transporting rocket and enter orbit - the nose cone housing the satellite failed to break free, and the entire structure fell into the ocean just north of Antarctica.

Salawitch would not speak to the media in the days following the accident and is still very disappointed by the events.

"I personally think a great opportunity was lost," he said. "We were poised to take a great step forward."

The satellite was planned to circle Earth every 99 minutes, taking 500,000 images a day. The project would give scientists a picture of the amounts of global carbon dioxide with an unprecedented level of accuracy, Salawitch said. This accuracy was at the heart of the group's goals.

"Measuring CO2 is not an issue. Anybody can measure CO2," Salawitch said. "It's measuring it well enough to advance the science."

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are currently at about 385 parts per million, Salawitch said, and the satellite had to be able to measure with enough accuracy to detect a change of one part per million.

Salawitch said the group's first hurdle was convincing the scientific community not that the experiments would be successful but that the accuracy was possible.

"If we could show the world we could measure to one part per million, our science was a slam-dunk," he said.

The project was accepted by NASA in 2001, and the team grew to about 50 international scientists, Salawitch said, adding that, in addition, several hundred engineers actually built the satellite.

"We had the right mix of people to be able to pull it off," he said. "It was a grand challenge, but the community felt if anybody could do it, we could."

The two-year mission had several implications for the community at large - in addition to providing scientists with a greatly enhanced image of global carbon dioxide levels, the system was accurate enough to monitor carbon dioxide levels shifting in and out of individual countries, Salawitch said, having implications for global public policy involving carbon rebates and fines.

Salawitch wore two hats in the project. His knowledge of the global carbon cycle placed him in a critical role with the initial proposal to NASA.

"I was one of four or five people that worked on the proposal, and we were literally locked in a room for two months. We had a secretary, state-of-the-art computers and refreshments," he said. "I just stopped everything I was doing and helped write this document."

Once the mission had started, Salawitch would have been the project's validation lead, charged with monitoring the data collected by the satellite and comparing it to data collected from monitoring stations on the ground. Assisted by Ben Johnson, his graduate assistant and a former opinion editor for The Diamondback, Salawitch would then adjust the computer systems to provide more accurate data.

Before the crash, Salawitch and Johnson were planning to move to Pasadena, Calif., to work on the project, plans that have since been scuttled.

Despite the loss of the $278 million satellite, Salawitch maintains the project was not a complete failure, pointing out the significant ground-measurement facilities that are still providing valuable data. In addition, he said, several graduate students received their doctorates from their work on the project.

"We didn't lose everything when we failed to launch," he said. "Some people are doctors because of OCO. And they won't take the Ph.D.s away."

He also said the crash did not necessarily kill the project, and discussions are already underway analyzing the possible next steps.

"It's the end of the OCO, which was the specific satellite. It is not, though, the end of the OCO team," he said. "We're plotting the way forward."

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