Duncan thought to be considering run for governor's office

Former university administrator Doug Duncan is fueling rumors about a potential challenge to Gov. Martin O'Malley in 2010, but is remaining coy about announcing his candidacy.

"I'm convinced there will be a serious challenger in the Democratic primary," said Duncan, who resigned as vice president for administrative affairs last year. "I'm not saying I'm running, and I'm not saying I'm not running."

Duncan was the Montgomery County executive and mayor of Rockville and ran against O'Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2006 before coming to the university in 2007. But he resigned suddenly from his university post five weeks after a spat with university system lobbyist P.J. Hogan. Since then, he has joined CivicUS, a political and policy consulting company, and been increasingly critical of the governor in the media.

"He just hasn't shown the leadership or the vision to get us through these tough times," he said. "People are worrying that he is going to drag the Democratic party down as he becomes more unpopular."

Duncan said he has been talking with other Democratic officials and that a few names have emerged as potential challengers for the governor's seat. Yet with the election only a little more than a year away, no one from either party has made an official campaign announcement. On the Republican side, former governor Bob Ehrlich (R) has the most name recognition and would pose the biggest threat to O'Malley, but he has not made a decision about a rematch against O'Malley in 2010. The Washington Post yesterday reported that Larry Hogan, a Cabinet secretary under Ehrlich, will test the waters for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, but will drop out if Ehrlich puts in a bid.

As for Democrats, former Calvert County delegate George Owings, who crossed party lines to serve as state secretary of veterans affairs under Ehrlich, expressed interest in the governor's seat in May, while former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry is also a potential candidate.

Duncan said he thinks the gubernatorial race will be a late-breaking election as the economy gets worse and more people lose jobs due to O'Malley's "uninspiring and reactionary" leadership.

"You don't have to be out there a year or two in advance," he said. "It's really going to be a referendum on O'Malley."

At this point in the 2006 gubernatorial election cycle, the race was already in full swing. Since O'Malley already has a large campaign war chest as well as the advantage of incumbency, candidates will need to step up to the plate soon. No recent polls on O'Malley's popularity could be found, but a Gonzales Research poll from January placed his approval rating at 49 percent. Congressional Quarterly rates the 2010 governor's race as "safe Democrat."

At this point, any word on a potential challenger is only gossip, said university lobbyist Ross Stern.

"Maryland politics is like a giant echo chamber: Someone starts a rumor and soon everyone is talking about it, but no one knows who started it or if it's even true," he said.

O'Malley's campaign manager Tom Russell said his office is not speculating about 2010 opponents.

"The governor is busy doing a very good job in a very difficult environment, and whoever decides to run against us at the end of the day, we will be ready for," Russell said.

astice@umdbk.com