Right bill, wrong time

ANNAPOLIS – Even before its hearing yesterday, higher education advocates knew their pet legislation had zero chance of passing the General Assembly this spring.

"It's the right bill," University System of Maryland lobbyist P.J. Hogan said. "But it's a difficult time."

The university has plenty of reasons to support the Tuition Cap and College Opportunity Act, which is sponsored by Sen. Jim Rosapepe (D-Anne Arundel and Prince George's). It would guarantee increased and stable state funding for the university, with a promise of full funding by 2021, severely limit tuition increases and make the Higher Education Investment Fund permanent.

But state legislators have at least 320 million reasons to put it aside. That's how many dollars state analysts said the bill would cost the state over the next five years, and the amounts would only increase each year after that, peaking and plateauing a decade from now. Members of the General Assembly, who began this session facing a $2 billion deficit, can't afford to spend like that right now.

The bill is a prime example of how policymakers' wishes can be derailed by unyielding economic and legislative facts. Despite having almost half the members of the state Senate listed as co-sponsors, the bill's chance of passage is nil.

"I think all those co-sponsors reflect the belief higher education needs to be better funded," Hogan said. "Sometimes that belief runs smack-dab into reality."

Few legislators dislike the bill's goals, and key committee chairmen helped craft them as members of the Bohanan Commission. The commission, which was named after its chairman, Del. John Bohanan (D-St. Mary's), produced a report in 2008 after three years of work. The report's main recommendation was for the state to fund public universities at levels greater than the states it competes with for jobs, while simultaneously keeping tuition lower and financial aid higher than those states do. For the past two years, Rosapepe has submitted legislation that would convert the commission's most important recommendations into state law. But he knows the bill's moment hasn't arrived.

"I actually think the right time is when the university community decides to fight for it," said Rosapepe, who represents College Park. He pointed to the passage of the landmark Thornton education law in 2002, when the state's coffers were also far from full.

"The champions of [K-12] public education said, ‘We can't wait,'" he said. "To date, the university community hasn't been willing to do that."

"As long as the university says ‘We can't do it this year, we can't do it this year,' it'll never get done," he added.

Rosapepe said strong pressure from students, parents, faculty and alumni would be needed to push cautious lawmakers over the edge.

"[Legislators] didn't see people at the university engaged in the issue," he said. "Just wanting it in the legislative context, in a democracy, doesn't get it done."

But Hogan and university lobbyist Ross Stern said a revived economy, not activism, would be essential to finally giving the recommendations the force of law.

"The revenues will come back," said Hogan, who was the chair of the Bohanan Commission when he was a state senator from Montgomery County before taking the job with the university system. "It's just a matter of when they do."

For right now, the state is projecting billion dollar deficits for years to come. Hogan said an uptick in the economy should be able to close those gaps quickly. And the high cost of the Thornton plan has made legislators wary of new mandates.

Fiscal forces can force the hands of lawmakers as well. The appropriations subcommittee Bohanan chairs recommended a freeze on university spending until 2012 earlier this week, and several of Rosapepe's co-sponsors were on a senate committee that did the same.

In the end, the bill's hearing was quick, lasting less than five minutes. Only Rosapepe and Hogan testified in support of the legislation, and Senate Budget and Taxation Committee Chairman Ulysses Currie (D-Prince George's) at one point seemed confused about what it even contained. Both officials conceded the fiscal impossibility of the bill's passage but looked to the future.

"Someday, we're going to have the money," Hogan said.

He paused.

"If we're going to be competitive, we have to have the money."

robillard@umdbk.com