Univ. program publishes data, trends about al-Qaida attacks

In response to the death of former al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, university researchers released a report last week that illustrates the big picture behind the terrorist organization's activity since 1998, providing a glimpse into the strategies of a group considered to be the most dangerous in the world.

The university's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism assembled the report, which contains data about the number of al-Qaida attacks per year, the number of attacks by al-Qaida affiliate groups, the fatalities resulting from those incidents and comparisons between the tactics of various terrorist organizations.

Researchers compiled the report using information from their Global Terrorism Database — a massive record of more than 87,000 terrorist attacks that have occurred worldwide between 1970 and 2008. The numbers demonstrate the particularly deadly nature of al-Qaida operations as compared to other groups, officials said, and provide a backdrop for understanding how the group might respond to bin Laden's death.

"When something major happens, we turn to that database and say, ‘What useful information can we draw from this,' and we pool our resources together in a background report," said Erin Miller, the database's project manager.

According to the report, al-Qaida was responsible or presumed to be responsible for 84 attacks resulting in at least 4,299 deaths worldwide since 1998, with 2,994 of those fatalities occurring in 2001.

The most notable statistics, however, are those that show why al-Qaida is regarded as the most dangerous terrorist organization and the biggest threat to the United States, Miller said. There are about 600 known international terrorist groups, according to the report, and al-Qaida is responsible for only 1 percent of terrorist attacks since 1998 but 20 percent of fatalities from attacks during the same period.

Al-Qaida typically plans attacks that have a big impact, Miller said. The group has carried out 16 mass-casualty attacks — defined as single events that kill more than 25 people — since 1998, which is more than any other terrorist organization during that period.

"It's a particular strategy of putting all your eggs in one basket," she said. "They carried out fewer attacks, but they were highly lethal. Other groups that killed roughly similar numbers of people were active for much longer."

Some students said they weren't surprised to learn al-Qaida attacks were particularly deadly, though several said they would be concerned regardless of the concrete data.

"I was originally nervous while everyone was celebrating," said Jessica Rothmeier, a freshman civil engineering major. "I was skeptical of our power and hubris when it comes to the whole thing. I hope that nothing worse happens because of [our attack on bin Laden]. The fact that they've proven themselves to be well-organized — that's not the most comforting fact."

START's background reports help the public digest a given incident's implications, Miller said, adding that elements of the al-Qaida report, such as the characteristics of the organization's past attacks, might foreshadow how it can be expected to act in the future.

"Usually we're interested in illustrating what is unique about the situation," she said. "In this case, we showed how al-Qaida's activities are somewhat remarkable."

Though part of the database project's mission is to reduce the threat of future attacks and maximize domestic preparedness, officials said al-Qaida is unique in a variety of ways that make it very difficult to predict when and how the organization will retaliate against the United States for killing its leader. The data do help quantify the public's general conclusions that al-Qaida is the most deadly terrorist threat, Miller said.

"Using the information we have available in the GTD, we are definitely able to look at trends over time and take a look at patterns that have emerged in the past," Miller said. "You can look at other situations in which a leader has been killed to see how that has impacted the activity of the group, but al-Qaida is different in so many ways; it's difficult to predict what will happen next."

gulin at umdbk dot com