Banking on big-time expectations

Buried deep inside the 27-page report of the President's Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics, which rocked the university's athletics community Monday with its recommendation that at least eight teams be eliminated, lies an interesting — and troubling — tidbit.

"The Commission is confident that both [the Terrapins men's basketball and football] teams will become nationally competitive in the coming years," the report states, adding that such success would help bring much-needed revenue into a cash-strapped athletics department.

That's a whole lot to ask. With two first-year coaches who each inherited an unenviable situation, expecting a quick turnaround is awfully ambitious.

Look at what men's basketball coach Mark Turgeon is dealing with. His basketball squad is in near-shambles following the retirement of Gary Williams, and when the Terps take the court tomorrow against Alabama, he'll have just eight healthy scholarship players on his roster.

Football coach Randy Edsall inherited a program that, despite its 9-4 record last season, is dealing with practice-time limits and scholarship reductions resulting from transgressions under former coach Ralph Friedgen. This season's struggles will only make future recruiting more difficult.

The commission's report places a large focus on a revamping of the athletics department's fundraising efforts and even recommends three new positions be created within the department to help spur fundraising growth.

But even if Turgeon and Edsall are able to restore the fan support that's been lost to seasons of mediocrity — thereby attracting the ticket revenue that went missing, as well — who's to say people will be willing to shell out additional money to help get the department out of the red?

"I think it's a little more than a hope," commission co-chairman Barry Gossett said in an interview with The Diamondback yesterday. "There's no reason that the University of Maryland should not have a top-25 rated program in [basketball and football].

"The sentiment of the commission was the same thing — that while being, we'll say somewhat conservative, in our estimates for the projections."

It's difficult to imagine that, even in the event of quick turnarounds, people will start to pump money into the athletics department anytime soon.

Which brings us to the disconcerting part: Where's the money going to come from? Because it doesn't appear cutting eight sports will be a slam-dunk solution.

The commission aggressively estimates total revenue will increase by nearly $6 million for the 2012 fiscal year, with nearly $1 million of that coming from additional fundraising income.

And while Gossett added that such estimates weren't based solely on projected success in the two major revenue sports, it's tough to imagine such a spike in revenue without a good product, especially considering the sparse crowds we've seen at Byrd Stadium and Comcast Center in recent years.

The money, as always, has to come from the fans.

So what if these recommendations are off base and the measures to cut costs and increase cash flow aren't enough?

Cutting those eight teams would certainly help turn things around, and it seems the only logical solution at this point.

But the report left the door open for additional cuts, and if the assumed increase in revenue and fundraising falls short, that seems like the next step.

The university must have 16 varsity sports to maintain FBS standing, and the recommended snipping of eight teams would still leave three slots to play with.

Could wrestling or baseball, teams with large expenses and little revenue, be the next to go?

Who knows? Any speculation about the future of the department remains just that: speculation.

But it's certainly troubling that the commission has placed so much of the athletics department's future on an increasingly fickle fan base.

Yes, it could be that the recommendations prove to be enough to pull the department out of the red.

But things could get worse before they get better, and there's a good chance the looming cuts may prove to be nothing more than the edge of a slippery slope.

Senior staff writer Jeremy Schneider contributed to this report.

cwalsh@umdbk.com