ENGELKE: In wild ACC, it’s anyone’s guess

Heading into the 2010 to 2011 college basketball season, there was really only one thing that was certain about the ACC: Duke was above and beyond the best team in the conference, and every other team was fighting to establish itself.

"You look at Duke as the defending national champions. They'll be picked No. 1 in the nation by most people and obviously No. 1 in our conference," Terrapin men's basketball coach Gary Williams conceded during October's Media Day. "But after that, I think you can make a case for a lot of teams. We're looking forward to getting into that, where we can prove just where we belong."

That preseason prediction has held true, as the Blue Devils — despite being thrashed in New York by St. John's, 93-78, Sunday — have run away from the rest of an increasingly jumbled pack.

This year's ACC isn't the Big East, where seemingly every team has a ranking next to its name. No. 5 Duke is only one of two ranked ACC squads. The other — No. 23 North Carolina — didn't even make the ESPN/USA Today top 25.

After that, it's anyone's guess as to who stacks up where. Four teams — Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech and the Terps — boast a 4-3 record in league play, and Florida State, at 5-2 in the ACC, is just above the logjam in the middle.

Week after week, this year's ACC has proven to be a congested mess where any team can win a conference game at any given time. Trying to rationalize who will beat whom based on previous scores will just give you a headache.

Look no further than the confusing results of the ACC's middle tier. Just five days after beating the Terps by 17 points in College Park on Jan. 20, Virginia Tech was dominated by Georgia Tech, 72-57. Then the Terps went down to Atlanta on Sunday and beat that same Yellow Jacket squad by 11.

There are about a half-dozen league members besides the obvious selection in Duke that have hopes of making the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season. Not all of them will.

The Terps' recent play, including three straight ACC wins, won't guarantee their place in the 68-team field. But it certainly has put their name back into consideration.

"That's huge for us," forward Dino Gregory said after the Terps' victory over Georgia Tech. "Our goal is to be 13-3 in the ACC, so we're on our way."

While a conference record of 13-3 would guarantee the Terps a berth to the NCAA Tournament, the odds of it happening are quite slim. But the Terps still can undoubtedly separate themselves from the clustered middle of the ACC.

A win against Duke (19-2, 6-1 ACC) tomorrow would start that process.

The game against the Blue Devils presents the chance for the Terps to claim a signature victory, one that could do wonders when Selection Sunday rolls around. By the season's end, few teams in the watered-down ACC will be able to claim a win of such cache.

But tomorrow will not be about whether Duke can be beaten by this Terp squad (14-7, 4-3). It's about which team the Terps decide they want to be.

The Terps need to hit perimeter shots like they did against Virginia and free throws like they did against Georgia Tech. If they can't, they'll lose — big — like they did against Virginia Tech.

"If we play 40 minutes hard, we can win any game," guard Sean Mosley said. "And I think the team is starting to realize that."

In this year's topsy-turvy ACC, that realization might be just what the Terps need to succeed.

jengelke@umdbk.com