NCAA Tournament picture taking shape for men's lacrosse

With the ACC Tournament in its rearview mirror and only one regular-season game remaining for the Terrapin men's lacrosse team, possible scenarios for the NCAA Tournament are beginning to take shape.

The No. 6 Terps (10-3) improved their postseason resumé with two wins against No. 10 North Carolina and No. 8 Duke last weekend in claiming the program's first conference championship since 2005. But even with a few impressive wins this season — the Terps beat every ACC team, all of which rank in the top 10 nationally — the Terps' relatively easy strength of schedule outside conference play could hurt them when the selection committee seeds the 16-team field next Sunday.

After giving out bids to six automatic qualifiers, the committee looks at a combination of strength of schedule, RPI and "significant" wins and losses to determine how to allocate the remaining 10 at-large bids.

And while the Terps' inclusion in the field of 16 teams isn't in question, their seeding in the tournament could be lower than expected due to their 15th-ranked strength of schedule, which is the lowest among the four ACC schools.

This season, the Terps have played home games against Detroit Mercy, Bellarmine and Saint Joseph's, all of which rank 48th or lower in RPI among the 61 Division I lacrosse programs. Adding to the Terps' schedule woes is the fact that normally strong local opponents Georgetown (5-7), UMBC (6-5) and Navy (4-9) have fallen off this season.

"It's hard because the schedule is the schedule," coach John Tillman said last month after being asked about the Terps' relatively easy slate of opponents. "And you can't change that."

But even with several games against inferior opponents, playing in the ACC has boosted the Terps' strength of schedule to at least a respectable level. Relative strength is determined by taking a team's 10 most difficult games, meaning the Terps' outings against Detroit, Bellarmine and St. Joseph's likely will be dropped. Last weekend's ACC Tournament, which acts as a portfolio boost of sorts for the four teams involved — regardless of wins or losses — is a big reason why.

"It's great for us, selfishly," Tillman said last month. "You'll get [at least] one more [strong opponent], but if you get to the championship, it's another top-five, top-eight team that you'll add to your resumé. When I was at other schools, it was a tournament that I didn't like because it's very self-serving. If you lose to Virginia, Duke or Carolina, it doesn't hurt you. But if you beat one, you've got another really big win and RPI goes up, strength of schedule goes up."

New bracket projections released by lacrosse analysts yesterday reflected the Terps' weekend upswing. LaxPower.com slated the Terps as the tournament's No. 7 seed, while The Washington Times had the Terps as the No. 8 seed. Previous projections had the Terps unseeded and playing in a first-round away game.

The top eight teams in the bracket earn a first-round home game, an obvious advantage the Terps covet. But with teams such as Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cornell, Johns Hopkins and Duke all but guaranteed to host a game in the first round, the Terps likely will be competing against Denver, Virginia, North Carolina, Villanova, Bucknell and Hofstra for the three remaining home-game spots.

There are still games remaining that could affect seeding — most notably Notre Dame's games at Syracuse and North Carolina in the next two weeks — but the Terps aren't focusing on what's going on with other teams.

After completing the first of their season goals last weekend, the Terps are focused only on themselves as they look ahead to No. 2.

"We've been working hard all year to get two championships, and this is a step in the right direction," attackman Grant Catalino said Sunday. "It's not the end of the road, for sure, but it is a step in the right direction. ... This is going to prepare us for the Final Four."

jengelke@umdbk.com