Terp women find themselves in an unusual position

If there's one telltale sign of the atypical season the Terrapin women's basketball team has put together thus far, it's come in the form of its postseason prospects.

The Terps, who have advanced to the NCAA Tournament six straight years, haven't had to worry about metrics such as the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) or strength of schedule since they eked out a tournament bid in 2004.

But with nine freshmen and sophomores on this season's roster, and with major losses from last season's ACC regular season and tournament title squad, this season has become an unwelcome refresher of sorts for coach Brenda Frese.

The Terps (14-6, 2-4 ACC) have already surpassed the number of losses last year's team suffered and will at least double the total number of conference defeats from last season (two).

And while few expected the same type of success the Terps enjoyed while Kristi Toliver and Marissa Coleman played — the Terps were picked to finish fifth in the ACC this year and started the season unranked for the first time since 2003 — they're in an unusual position.

Jerry Palm, an NCAA Tournament expert who runs ratings website collegerpi.com, slotted the team as the ninth seed in the Kansas City regional in his most recent projection of the tournament field last Wednesday. But the Terps' RPI, an important measurement to the NCAA Tournament selection committee, has stumbled into shaky territory after recent home losses to Miami and Duke.

After Sunday night's loss, the team's RPI stood at No. 46, a ranking that places it firmly on the bubble. Vermont, for instance, is one of Palm's lowest seeded at-large bids and sits just one spot behind the Terps in Palm's most recent rankings. An RPI of 40 or better normally qualifies a team for one of the 33 at-large bids available in the 64-team tournament.

"There's no way to be definite when analyzing one borderline team, especially this early," Palm said. "It depends so much on what other teams do. The only way to secure a berth is to finish at the top of the league."

According to Palm, the team's non-conference losses to Towson and Mississippi State earlier this season — the two worst defeats they've endured so far — "aren't the worst losses in the world." Towson does not have a losing record this season, and Mississippi State will not hurt the Terps' chances unless the Bulldogs play their way into at-large consideration.

The same issue of bid scarcity resonates through the ACC.  Nine of the league's 12 teams are ranked among the top 56 teams in Palm's RPI — a fact that underscores how important conference play will be in determining tournament bids. In the past four years, the conference has twice sent seven teams to the NCAA Tournament.

And while tournament appearances have become as much a constant as Frese's presence on Comcast Center sideline in recent years, the eighth-year coach said the Big Dance hasn't entered into the team's dialogue.

At least, not yet.

"We're in ACC play, we're in the thick of it," Frese said. "Shoot, half of them may not even know what that is at this point with so many new kids. We're just trying to win games in the ACC and take it one day at a time. … All the peripheral things take care of themselves."

shaffer@umdbk.com